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pre2026/03/18 05:38:44

2026-03-18 Morning Brief

2026-03-18 Morning Brief

Economic Calendar

DateEventPreviousEstimateActualImpact
2026-03-18 07:00:00MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (Mar/13)1646.300NaN1341.000⭐️
2026-03-18 07:00:00MBA Mortgage Market Index (Mar/13)389.600NaN347.100⭐️
2026-03-18 07:00:00MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Mar/13)6.190NaN6.300⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 07:00:00MBA Purchase Index (Mar/13)171.300NaN172.900⭐️
2026-03-18 07:00:00MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar/13)3.200NaN-10.900⭐️
2026-03-18 08:30:00Producer Price Index (Feb)152.174152.60153.231⭐️
2026-03-18 08:30:00PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (Feb)3.4003.303.500⭐️
2026-03-18 08:30:00Producer Price Index MoM (Feb)0.5000.300.700⭐️⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 08:30:00PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Feb)0.3000.300.500⭐️
2026-03-18 08:30:00Core PPI YoY (Feb)3.6003.703.900⭐️
2026-03-18 08:30:00Producer Price Index YoY (Feb)2.9002.903.400⭐️
2026-03-18 08:30:00Core PPI MoM (Feb)0.8000.300.500⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 10:00:00Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM0.500NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:00:00Factory Orders ex Transportation (Jan)0.4000.20NaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:00:00Factory Orders MoM (Jan)-0.7000.10NaN⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 10:00:00Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM0.400NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (Mar/13)0.661NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Gasoline Production Change (Mar/13)0.554NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Mar/13)-3.654-1.60NaN⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Mar/13)3.8240.40NaN⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (Mar/13)0.228NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (Mar/13)0.328NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00Imports0.661NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (Mar/13)0.117NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates WoW1.600NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change (Mar/13)0.132NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 10:30:00EIA Distillate Stocks Change (Mar/13)-1.349-1.50NaN⭐️
2026-03-18 11:30:0017-Week Bill Auction3.600NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 14:00:00Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr3.400NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 14:00:00FOMC Economic ProjectionsNaNNaNNaN⭐️⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 14:00:00Interest Rate Projection - Longer3.000NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 14:00:00Fed Interest Rate Decision3.7503.75NaN⭐️⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 14:00:00Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr3.100NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 14:00:00Interest Rate Projection - Current3.600NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 14:30:00Fed Press ConferenceNaNNaNNaN⭐️⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 14:30:00Press ConferenceNaNNaNNaN⭐️⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 16:00:00Overall Net Capital Flows (Jan)44.900NaNNaN⭐️
2026-03-18 16:00:00Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jan)28.00071.60NaN⭐️⭐️
2026-03-18 16:00:00Foreign Bond Investment (Jan)-41.600NaNNaN⭐️

Earnings Calendar

SymbolEPS ActualEPS EstimatedRevenue ActualRevenue Estimated
TBPH-1.09-50704000.0
ITFS-0.12-142224000.0
SHCMF----
NGD-0.2383-476944535.0
HYPR--0.08-5300000.0
AEMMF--4509221100.04514816440.0
ALVO--0.00575-159926500.0
ASPI----
DMRA--0.14--
PHYS3.53-115059000.0-
LNDZF----
BIGGQ-1.27-1423000000.0
SOHON---44000000.0
GLTO--0.14--
SKLZ--1.0338-26000000.0
UPB--0.69819-521570.0
PNGAY----
FWEDF----
HKSHF----
GHVNF----
TPICQ--0.66-328800000.0
GLASF--0.2-38750000.0
RCMT-0.62-84460000.0
MCHVY----
MALJF-0.2075-196640454.0
PUKPF0.710.71--
FYGGY----
XOMAO0.3373-0.1145421507000.011050000.0
SOHOB---44000000.0
WRN--0.00728--
NHHHF----
BZ-0.278-299402787.0
USDP----
TGASF----
AEMMY--4429825700.04429825600.0
TLLTF--0.0352-32918401.0
OEZVY0.19170.1917--
SBHMY----
KOPN--0.015-10947000.0
RTEXF----
ICLR-3.24-2000579040.0
BGSI0.90.608793854000.0810682280.0
SEIGY----
CRMZ----
OVID0.1183-0.1226718000.062600.0
BBGI----
HTHT-0.4665-928353303.0
CSPKF----
HGKGY----
SERA--0.18897-31767.0
BLFY--0.1-12853000.0
CHWRF0.050040.050047256987552.03756292280.0
OAK-PA----
PFRRF----
HLFFF-1.27-1817545759.0
MITJF----
AMXEF--0.00728--
AHOTF----
CVV----
SIHBY----
OTRKQ--0.64-3697000.0
TLTFF---219050.0
ATER--0.58-18382000.0
SINT--0.55--
MBRFY---8042421066.0
HTFL--0.16913-46499200.0
JTKWY----
SPIR-0.76343-0.47515825000000.015492330.0
INDP--4.36--
YB0.1658-168029746.0-
XOMAP0.3373-0.1145413757000.011050000.0
VIORF----
PPTA--0.0432--
LFWD--0.96-7867500.0
AKEMF----
CGXEF----
OAK-PB----
AYRWF--0.31527-114035920.0
SOTDF-1.63-560610414.0
EEENF----
SUNE----
VCIC----
BGMSP--72.0-25000.0
AIFU----
ADGM----
SFRGF--0.04698-286484853.0
FDDMF---119361919.0
CLDI--1.56--
HYREQ---7054100.0
FPAYQ-0.1-40200000.0
TBHC-0.03-134742000.0
BGMS--72.0-25000.0
EXALF----
SWKH-0.52--
RDHL----
CHR----
CABA--0.4579--
XYF----
CCPUF--0.02185-1966140.0
ADAPY--0.059-4850000.0
SRAIF-0.795-2799046600.0
ATLCL-1.59734375000.0691857020.0
SAIL-0.08007-292661000.0
BYLTF--0.01456-12558866.0
SHPH----
CAUUF----
TGMPF-0.00157-14201880.0
AFIB--0.19-12400000.0
CKISY0.9980.998324034970.0324034964.0
KDDIY0.13670.32889800411668.010038818598.0
VPHIF----
MDV-PA-0.05-11392000.0
JRONY-0.77-11018350700.0
PLX-0.070070.049122000.014359000.0
NOWVF---9650000.0
TATT-0.392-48040330.0
CKISF0.20050.2004325414948.0325324307.0
GROY-WT--0.00451-4970667.0
URZEF----
GEGYF--0.036-26000000.0
ZYXIQ--0.18-21400000.0
GORO---25800000.0
HSNGF-0.4496-2657284636.0
BRYGF----
ALMS--0.98818-2400000.0
ELA-0.09-52247500.0
TNXXF---14515592520.0
LU-1.34-2813234357.0
GIS0.640.7284436700000.04411061574.0
WSM-2.91-2416450360.0
TCEHY1.010.99628221040000.028151892189.0
KNOP-0.385-95862500.0
SONDQ----
ATLCZ-1.59734375000.0691857020.0
STHFF----
UBLXF---253793680.0
JRONF-0.3612-10888194276.0
CNGKY----
LPA----
RCAT--0.15-23918330.0
SHIHF----
AKTAF-0.01231-32127333.0
NSPR--0.193333149000.02626670.0
PSLV8.32--1181000.0-
VHIBF-0.0353-22564333.0
HGKGF----
DLO-0.1791-296096560.0
VONOY---985058297.0
CBLNF---335746554.0
VHC----
DBVT--0.2133-1058000.0
MOMO0.10290.1948368261375.0366264441.0
TLPH--0.075--
TGLO----
CUB----
BTVRF----
NEMKY----
MU-9.19-19198809250.0
CFWFF--0.03277-222043683.0
OEZVF-0.964--
DRVN0.29560.2787457330300.0458606000.0
IVDN----
SDOT-3.7-207600000.0
PTRUF----
PTOAF--0.03641-42057600.0
BRBOF---1054380184.0
XBP----
EVEX-WT--0.156--
MAORF----
LUNA-0.21-58632200.0
SEUSF----
MNSEF----
LNZA--6.47-12200000.0
SPTJF---2519961292.0
XCUR----
GROY--0.00451-4853000.0
GHBWF--0.19-38800000.0
LINK----
MHIVF----
ACCFF----
SYYYF-0.07137-1343559057.0
TIMCF----
PVL----
AOHLF----
CBKCQ----
ALVOW--0.00575-162194876.0
FIVE-4.0-1705354880.0
AQMS--4.0-1200000.0
SEIGF-0.505-207003368.0
FECCF-9.51-173611000.0-
OMER--0.57--
ICLTF----
CRPJY----
TAGOF----
VTEPF----
AOCIF-0.3439-817849767.0
CYRBY----
PBATF-0.00373-596793780.0
CTTPY----
XOMA0.3373-0.1145413757000.011050000.0
OSS-0.02333-10000000.0
USIO-0.002-23061950.0
PUK1.421.42--
RUPRF----
BKBLF----
M3.351.577916000000.07507968030.0
GMDMF----
PWCDF-1.05-3168268507.0
CRPJF----
WATT--0.84-2000000.0
BRKWF----
DUFRY0.1464-9068350034.0-
PWFNF----
LSLPF---124463766.0
SVMRF0.01914-0.00764490589.02937552.3
DMIFF----
TCTZF0.9960.99327789501848.028151892189.0
AQB--0.52-500000.0
WB0.250.28473258000.0403000000.0
SFRGY--0.02349-593137550.0
JSPRW--0.7209--
REE--0.54-100000.0
FLWBF--0.01468-14501864.0
PZRIF-0.1748-118769419.0
SOHOO---44000000.0
EBRCZ---400000.0
UCL--0.01-23000000.0
BTEAF---331136234.0
LIEN-0.37-13411220.0
SLAI---1045536.0
LTRN--0.46--
JBL2.072.518282000000.07782177320.0

The US equity market faces a complex backdrop of divergent inflationary pressures, evolving monetary policy expectations, and sector-specific dynamics that collectively shape near-term directional bias. Wholesale price indices posted a 0.7 percent increase in February, exceeding prior forecasts and indicating persistent inflationary momentum within the goods and services component of the economy. This acceleration in core inflation metrics heightens the challenge for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to anchor long-term inflation expectations while navigating a global environment marked by geopolitical volatility and energy market uncertainty. The implications extend beyond headline CPI readings, influencing corporate pricing power, input cost structures, and ultimately, profit margins across multiple sectors.Dividend trends provide an additional layer of insight into underlying economic resilience. The latest tracking of dividend metadata reveals a pattern of reductions across certain industries, signaling potential stress within capital-intensive or cyclical segments. Companies curtailing payouts often do so in response to deteriorating free cash flow generation, elevated debt servicing costs, or strategic reallocations toward core operations amid macroeconomic headwinds. Such movements, while not necessarily indicative of systemic weakness, serve as a leading indicator of sector-specific vulnerability, particularly where leverage ratios are elevated or working capital intensities constrain flexibility.Oil prices remain a pivotal variable in market valuation models, with consensus forecasts projecting a stabilization around $88 per barrel six months out. This projection reflects a delicate balance between supply constraints driven by OPEC+ output discipline and demand dynamics influenced by global growth differentials. The persistence of elevated energy costs introduces margin compression risks for transportation, manufacturing, and logistics firms, while simultaneously benefiting upstream producers and energy-related equities. Analysts must weigh these opposing forces when assessing sector rotation opportunities and evaluating the sustainability of earnings revisions.The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory continues to command significant attention, with market participants calibrating expectations around the upcoming decision on the federal funds rate. Survey data from CNBC’s Fed Survey suggests a majority consensus favoring a hold in rates, though the inclusion of forward guidance around potential cuts underscores the nuanced stance among policymakers. The anticipated pause in tightening cycles, juxtaposed with the historical pattern of delayed responses to inflationary surprises, implies a cautious approach to rate adjustments. This environment favors assets with resilient cash flows and lower sensitivity to interest rate volatility, while penalizing high-duration positions vulnerable to widening spreads.Technical considerations further complicate the outlook. Equity futures demonstrated modest gains, buoyed by optimism surrounding easing oil prices and a potential easing of rate hike expectations. However, the S&P 500’s valuation multiples have come under pressure due to concentration risk in mega-cap technology names, elevated enterprise value to EBITDA multiples, and the emergence of new inflationary pressures. These structural headwinds necessitate a recalibration of portfolio construction, emphasizing quality, cash generation, and defensive positioning over speculative bets on growth at any cost.The interplay between macroeconomic fundamentals and idiosyncratic risks creates a bifurcated market landscape. On one hand, cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials, and energy exhibit signs of distress, as evidenced by dividend cuts and margin compression. On the other, defensive segments including utilities and consumer staples demonstrate relative stability, supported by their defensive characteristics and lower beta profiles. The divergence invites selective exposure to undervalued opportunities within the energy sector, particularly among firms with robust balance sheets and strategic positioning to benefit from sustained commodity demand.Investor sentiment indicators, such as the CNN Fear and Greed Index, remain entrenched in the “Extreme Fear” zone, reflecting lingering uncertainty amid geopolitical developments and policy ambiguity. The persistence of such sentiment underscores the fragility of market recoveries following exogenous shocks, while also creating potential entry points for contrarian strategies predicated on fundamental analysis rather than technical momentum. The risk of a prolonged bear cycle looms if inflation proves more persistent than anticipated or if the conflict in the Middle East escalates beyond current projections.Corporate governance and regulatory developments add another dimension to the analysis. The softened draft capital rules proposed by the administration, coupled with potential modifications to banking regulations, could alleviate compliance burdens and enhance capital efficiency for financial institutions. However, the path to implementation remains fraught with political and procedural hurdles, introducing execution risk into sector-specific forecasts. The interplay between regulatory relief and macroeconomic constraints will be critical in determining the pace of credit expansion and broader economic activity.Market rotation into cyclical equities is underpinned by tangible economic fundamentals, including healthy year-over-year growth and moderating inflation. Yet, the accelerating pace of technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence and automation, introduces both opportunities and risks. Firms that successfully integrate these technologies stand to enhance productivity and margin resilience, while laggards face obsolescence or margin erosion. The challenge for investors lies in identifying companies positioned to capitalize on this structural shift without overpaying for speculative growth narratives.Geopolitical developments continue to exert outsized influence on risk appetite and commodity pricing. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, coupled with diplomatic tensions involving major trading partners, creates a volatile backdrop for global markets. Asian equity markets demonstrated broad-based gains, buoyed by resilience in regional economies and relative stability in domestic demand. However, divergences persist between markets in China and those in Southeast Asia, reflecting differing exposure to external demand and policy support mechanisms.The performance of specialized ETFs such as the Global Jets ETF highlights the importance of sector-specific risk management. Elevated short interest in such instruments often signals heightened bearish sentiment or strategic positioning ahead of earnings releases, regulatory announcements, or geopolitical developments. Investors must weigh these signals against broader market dynamics to avoid overreacting to transient volatility.Finally, the evolving risk profile of the financial sector, shaped by regulatory scrutiny and macroeconomic uncertainty, demands careful evaluation. While recent policy adjustments may provide temporary relief, the interplay between interest rate volatility, credit quality, and capital adequacy remains a focal point for institutional investors. The convergence of these factors suggests a cautious approach to financials, prioritizing institutions with strong balance sheets and diversified revenue streams over those exposed to cyclical downturns.In summary, the US stock market navigates a landscape defined by inflationary pressures, monetary policy uncertainty, sectoral divergence, and geopolitical risk. Successful positioning requires a disciplined focus on cash flow stability, valuation discipline, and selective exposure to structural growth drivers. Investors must remain vigilant to evolving data points while avoiding the pitfalls of herd mentality in an environment where fundamentals and sentiment often diverge. The coming weeks will serve as a critical juncture, testing the resilience of market structures and the adaptability of portfolio strategies in the face of persistent complexity.

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