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Forecast accuracy

Tracking Records

We periodically compare our published valuation forecasts with the prices later observed in the market, and publish the results — including the misses.

Published reviews

  1. Issue 03Sep 30, 2026107 Forecasts Later: Our Third Three-Month ReviewA growing track record gives us more results to examine. In our third three-month review, we revisit 107 published forecasts, comparing their original targets with subsequent market prices and examining both close results and larger deviations.Forecasts reviewed 107Within ±10% 51.4%
  2. Issue 02Aug 31, 202648 Forecasts Later: Our Second Three-Month ReviewPublishing a valuation creates an opportunity to test it. In our second three-month review, we revisit 48 published forecasts, comparing their original targets with subsequent market prices and examining both close results and larger deviations.Forecasts reviewed 48Within ±10% 47.92%
  3. Issue 01Jun 16, 202644 Forecasts Later: Our First Three-Month ReviewA published valuation should be something investors can revisit. In our first three-month review, we compare IanFV’s original price targets with subsequent market prices—showing where forecasts came close and where they diverged.Forecasts reviewed 44Within ±10% 45.45%

Forecast reviews measure the distance between forecasts and later prices. They are not investment returns, and past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.