44 Forecasts Later: Our First Three-Month Review
Review
A published valuation should be something investors can revisit. In our first three-month review, we compare IanFV’s original price targets with subsequent market prices—showing where forecasts came close and where they diverged.
- Forecast horizon
- 3 months
- Published
- Oct 29, 2026
Cohort and review
This issue covers 44 three-month valuation forecasts published between March 21 and March 31, 2026. Each original target is compared with its recorded three-month review price.
Absolute percentage error is calculated as the difference between the target and review price, divided by the review price.
Key figures
- Forecasts reviewed
- 44
- Within ±5%
- 34.09%
- Within ±10%
- 45.45%
- Within ±15%
- 63.64%
- Pearson r
- 0.8408
Correlation measures association, not forecast accuracy.
What the results tell us
What the Results Show
Nearly half of the forecasts were within ±10% of their review prices, and just over two-thirds were within ±15%.
Examples of close forecasts include Costco (COST), with a target of $977.73 versus a review price of $978.48, and NVIDIA (NVDA), at $212.79 versus $211.17.
The cohort also includes substantial deviations. Micron (MU) traded well above its target, while HubSpot (HUBS) traded well below it. These gaps are an important part of the review: they highlight cases that warrant closer examination of the original assumptions and subsequent developments.
The correlation describes the relationship between forecast and observed price levels across the sample; it does not measure forecast accuracy.
Research behind the numbers
IanFV’s valuations sit within structured research covering company fundamentals, industry conditions, valuation assumptions, scenarios, and risks. Tracking the outcomes adds accountability and helps us identify where the research framework needs improvement.
For investors, the value extends beyond a target price: it is the research foundation for understanding a company, assessing its valuation, and making an informed judgment.
Explore the reports behind the numbers: www.ianfv.com
Historical forecast results do not represent trading returns or guarantee future performance. Individual outcomes varied substantially. For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
Forecast reviews measure the distance between forecasts and later prices. They are not investment returns, and past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.