48 Forecasts Later: Our Second Three-Month Review
Review
Publishing a valuation creates an opportunity to test it. In our second three-month review, we revisit 48 published forecasts, comparing their original targets with subsequent market prices and examining both close results and larger deviations.
- Forecast horizon
- 3 months
- Published
- Oct 30, 2026
Cohort and review
This issue covers 48 three-month valuation forecasts published between April 21 and May 30, 2026. Each original target is compared with its recorded three-month review price.
Absolute percentage error is calculated as the absolute difference between the target and review price, divided by the review price.
Key figures
- Forecasts reviewed
- 48
- Within ±5%
- 27.08%
- Within ±10%
- 47.92%
- Within ±15%
- 60.42%
- Pearson r
- 0.958
Correlation measures association, not forecast accuracy.
What the results tell us
Nearly half of the forecasts were within ±10% of their review prices, and approximately three in five were within ±15%.
Close examples include Ambarella (AMBA), with a target of $69.02 versus a review price of $69.01, and NVIDIA (NVDA), at $218.58 versus $217.50.
Larger deviations also matter. Tilray (TLRY) traded below its $7.45 target at $4.95, while Snowflake (SNOW) traded above its $192.27 target at $307.27. These outcomes highlight cases for closer examination of the original assumptions and subsequent developments.
The correlation describes the relationship between forecast and observed price levels across the sample; it does not measure forecast accuracy.
Research behind the numbers
IanFV combines company fundamentals, industry conditions, valuation assumptions, scenarios, and risks in structured research reports. Tracking published forecasts adds accountability and helps us identify where the research framework needs improvement.
For investors, the value extends beyond a target price: it is the research foundation for understanding a company, assessing its valuation, and making an informed judgment.
Explore the research behind the numbers: www.ianfv.com
Historical forecast results do not represent trading returns or guarantee future performance. Individual outcomes varied substantially. For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
Forecast reviews measure the distance between forecasts and later prices. They are not investment returns, and past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.